geomon

Political events × market exposure

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Energy & reserves

How long each economy could ride out a supply shock. Arrows compare with a year earlier; hover a value for its definition and source.

Vol-event calendar

Option expiries are shown inline so you can line events up against them.

About geomon

How this works

geomon is a personal research tool. Every night it collects upcoming elections from IFES ElectionGuide, who holds which office (heads of state and government, cabinets) from Wikidata, dated role histories of politically exposed persons (national posts) from OpenSanctions, US congressional committee chairs from congress-legislators, and a hand-curated list of events such as Federal Reserve meetings. Simple hand-written rules then link each event to the markets it might move (for example "a US election moves S&P 500 volatility").

The Energy & reserves table and the map's Reserves layer show how long each economy could ride out a supply shock: crude oil stocks against refinery demand (JODI), the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (EIA), EU emergency oil stocks (Eurostat), gas storage (GIE AGSI+, EIA) and foreign-exchange reserves (World Bank). Where a country doesn't publish a figure, it says so rather than guessing.

It also reads headlines from public news feeds (BBC, Guardian, CNA, Straits Times, Malay Mail, SCMP, DW, France 24, NPR, the Fed) and GDELT. Articles that name a known politician are sent to an AI model through OpenRouter, which lists who did what to whom. A link is kept only if the article says it word for word and both people are already known; these are marked llm.

It refreshes once a night. It runs on Fly.io in Singapore with its database on Neon. Visitors are not tracked and nothing about them is stored; the only thing sent to the AI model is the text of public news articles. Spending on the model is capped each month. It does not trade, give investment advice, or update in real time. Links marked rule are inferred from those rules rather than stated by a source, and the percentage shows how confident the rule is.

Data freshness

PEP data © OpenSanctions, licensed CC BY-NC 4.0 — non-commercial use only.

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